Structural Shifts and Unemployment

by Ben Atlas on 11.16.2009.12:32am · 0 comments

2009-11-16_001231

Yearly changes in job postings through October 2009

The above chart was published by Indeed. Only Education shows an increase (seasonal?). And now Nouriel Roubini paints a dire picture in the New York Daily News – The worst is yet to come: Unemployed Americans should hunker down for more job losses:

“The long-term picture for workers and families is even worse than current job loss numbers alone would suggest. Now as a way of sharing the pain, many firms are telling their workers to cut hours, take furloughs and accept lower wages. Specifically, that fall in hours worked is equivalent to another 3 million full time jobs lost on top of the 7.5 million jobs formally lost.

This is very bad news but we must face facts. Many of the lost jobs are gone forever, including construction jobs, finance jobs and manufacturing jobs. Recent studies suggest that a quarter of U.S. jobs are fully out-sourceable over time to other countries.

Other measures tell the same ugly story: The average length of unemployment is at an all time high; the ratio of job applicants to vacancies is 6 to 1; initial claims are down but continued claims are very high and now millions of unemployed are resorting to the exceptional extended unemployment benefits programs and are staying in them longer.

Based on my best judgment, it is most likely that the unemployment rate will peak close to 11% and will remain at a very high level for two years or more.”

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